Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
